Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Wednesday Sept 17 outlook

/ES: Yesterday: O: 1976.5 H: 1994.5 L: 1970.25 C: 1991.75
Overnight: H: 1993.5 L: 1989
Currently: 1992.5

10yr: Yesterday: O: 2.556 H: 2.589 L: 2.553 C: 2.589
Currently: 2.56

/VX: Yesterday: O: 15.2 H: 15.35 L: 14.3 C: 14.37
Currently: 14.35

RAX is getting crushed in the pre-mkt and putting on a clinic as to why I generally prefer to be long volatility. It closed yesterday at 39.25 and is currently trading down at 32.65 after saying it is no longer looking at strategic alternatives. These market rumors/speculations provide some great non-directional setups, RAX is yet another one. I don't know why I didn't get involved in the name off the rumors like I did $EZCH.

 DD is popping 3.3% on light volume on news activist investors are trying to increase shareholder value. The stock closed at 65.83 and is currently around 68.05. It closed with IV at 20% yesterday.

X is popping to new highs at 46.26 on decent volume after closing yesterday at 41.50.

There's no real story this morning that I'm really interested in. FDX is out with earnings which may give either UPS or AMZN a pop.

Yesterday Recap
SODA didn't really go anywhere. I expected far more volatility than the market gave me. Currently holding a sep opex 33/32.5 strangle when stock was around 32.75. Ride or die till opex.

SHLD got crushed yesterday. I saw some 30.5 puts picked up 1000x for .24 but didn't follow, they ended up hitting .75 by 230pm as the stock just tanked.

I also saw P 25.5 calls getting picked up for around .80 and my thought was "another rumor must be brewing" and considered jumping in to front run a rumor. Turns out, that's exactly what happened and people continued to pile into P sending those calls up to  2.15.

DVN had a report of a PE firm taking a large equity stake. The stock popped from 70.6 to 71.4 then pulled back to 70.6 before rallying to 72.31 at 1pm.

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