Monday, August 3, 2020

Monday 03 Aug 2020 Morning Notes

After careful consideration this weekend, I've declared this epoch the second Golden Age of the Ratio Trade due to a confluence of factors, namely Robinhood/commission free trading, WSB/YOLOing, work from home, and weekly options. The 1st Golden Age of the Ratio Trade followed the crash of '87 and the advent of what's now accepted as the volatility smile, as investors panic bought OTM options. The strategy doesn't lend itself to trading size or the passive trader, as it requires spotting absurd bids in OTM options. But the spreads that can be created offer some truly compelling risk/reward dynamics

Earnings: Yesterday AMC:
Today BMO: CLX, HSBC, MCK, MPC, RACE, TSN; L

Other News:

Follow Through Names to Watch: AAPL, PINS, SHAK

GAINERS:
ADT: +61% at 14 on GOOGL stake;
VAR: +22.5% at 174.85 on t/o deal; 
CODX: +12% at 27.06; 
MPC: +6% at 40.40 on asset sales/earnings;
MCK: +4.2% at 156.50;

LOSERS:
ALRM: -9.4% at 63.50 on GOOGL/ADT stake;
L: -5% at 34.50;
SNAP: -2% at 22 on TikTok news;

FLAT:

Follow through watch:

Day before Y'day AMC: AAPL, AMZN, CC, COG, DVA, EA, EXAS, EXPE, GILD, GOOG, GOOGL, HIG, MGM, SHAK, TEAM, TNDM, VRTX, X, XLNX
Yesterday BMO: ABBV, CAT, CBOE, CHTR, CL, CVX, GT, ITW, JCI, LYB, MRK, PINS, PSX, UA, UAA, VFC, WY, XOM

Y'day Other News: PINS: +34% at 33.75, damn! AAPL: +6% at 409, or $1.8t! AMZN: +5% at 3215, really wish I threw $50k at Jan '21 2k calls back when it was at 1600 in March :( CHTR: +4.7% at 590; TEAM: -5.7% at 177; SHAK: -4.6% at 52.70; CVX: -4% at 82.75; GILD: -3.5% at 69.75; XLNX: -3.5% at 108;

2 days ago AMC: ADM, APA, CTSH, CXO, FB, LRCX, NOW, PYPL, QCOM, TDOC, URI
2 days ago BMO: ALXN, AMT, APO, AZN, BAX, BUD, CI, CLF, CMCSA, COP, DD, GRUB, IP, KHC, LLY, MA, NEM, NOC, OSTK, PG, SO, SWK, TAP, UPS, VLO, YUM

2 Day Old News:

TT Track of the Day: Rage Against the Machine - Wake up

Friday, July 31, 2020

Fri 31 July 2020 Morning Notes

Didn't trade it, but the UPS weekly 140/145 call spread could have been put on for free yesterday morning then sold an hour later for $1.00. Should probably focus on trading ratios only, but that's super-labor intensive... which is probably why those opportunities are there. I did add a wkly 1x2 ratio in CTSH in the 65-62 puts for a small credit, BA 145/130 1x2 puts for even money, and an ADM 43 long straddle at it's 1sd move.. and I'll be damned if ADM didn't trade in the tightest range it's traded in years. Got a bunch of well-OTM ratios on in other names that were put on either for free or a small credit.

Earnings: Yesterday AMC: AAPL, AMZN, CC, COG, DVA, EA, EXAS, EXPE, GILD, GOOG, GOOGL, HIG, MGM, SHAK, TEAM, TNDM, VRTX, X, XLNX
Today BMO: ABBV, CAT, CBOE, CHTR, CL, CVX, GT, ITW, JCI, LYB, MRK, PINS, PSX, UA, UAA, VFC, WY, XOM

Other News:

Follow Through Names to Watch: CTSH, PYPL, QCOM, TDOC, ALXN, UPS

GAINERS:
PINS: +34% at 33.75, damn!
AAPL: +6% at 409, or $1.8t!
AMZN: +5% at 3215, really wish I threw $50k at Jan '21 2k calls back when it was at 1600 in March :(
CHTR: +4.7% at 590;


LOSERS:
TEAM: -5.7% at 177;
SHAK: -4.6% at 52.70;
CVX: -4% at 82.75;
GILD: -3.5% at 69.75;
XLNX: -3.5% at 108;

FLAT:

Follow through watch:

Day before Y'day AMC: ADM, APA, CTSH, CXO, FB, LRCX, NOW, PYPL, QCOM, TDOC, URI
Yesterday BMO: ALXN, AMT, APO, AZN, BAX, BUD, CI, CLF, CMCSA, COP, DD, GRUB, IP, KHC, LLY, MA, NEM, NOC, OSTK, PG, SO, SWK, TAP, UPS, VLO, YUM

Y'day Other News:

2 days ago AMC: AMC: AFL, AKAM, AMD, AMGN, EBAY, FEYE, JNPR, MDLZ, OKE, SBUX, STX, V
2 days ago BMO: ADP, ANTM, BA, BSX, CCJ, CME, DISH, EPD, ETN, GD, GE, GM, HES, NSC, RCL, SHOP, SPOT, 

2 Day Old News: STX: -8.5% at 44.70; ADP: -5% at 139; SPOT: -3% at 258.33; EBAY: -2.5% at 55; KODK: +81% at 14.50 on gov't loan, apparently it's a biotech now; BCO: +30% at 49.70 on earnings; LB: +24% at 23.55 on cost reductions; SMG: +12% at 163 on earnings; FEYE: +11.5% 75.45; SHOP: +7% at 1056; SBUX: +5% at 78.55; GM: +3.7% at 27.32; JNPR: +3% at 25;

TT Track of the Day: Puddle of Mudd - Blurry... I did a search to see if I already posted this, turns out I've only posted one of their songs, "Drift and Die" which I posted last September. I can't believe it's been that long, feels like I just posted that song maybe a couple months ago. Wild how time flies

Thursday, July 30, 2020

Thurs 30 July 2020 Morning Notes

Gonna be a busy morning! I only include the tickers I'm remotely interested in.. though some I'm much more interested in than others, and the ones I'm most interested in probably have the least amount of eyes on them...

Earnings: Yesterday: ADM, APA, CTSH, CXO, FB, LRCX, NOW, PYPL, QCOM, TDOC, URI
Today BMO: ALXN, AMT, APO, AZN, BAX, BUD, CI, CLF, CMCSA, COP, DD, GRUB, IP, KHC, LLY, MA, NEM, NOC, OSTK, PG, SO, SWK, TAP, UPS, VLO, YUM

Other News:

Follow Through Names to Watch: SBUX, STX, ADP, SHOP, SPOT, ANTM

GAINERS:


LOSERS:


FLAT:

Follow through watch:

Day before Y'day AMC: AMC: AFL, AKAM, AMD, AMGN, EBAY, FEYE, JNPR, MDLZ, OKE, SBUX, STX, V
Yesterday BMO: ADP, ANTM, BA, BSX, CCJ, CME, DISH, EPD, ETN, GD, GE, GM, HES, NSC, RCL, SHOP, SPOT, 

Y'day Other News: STX: -8.5% at 44.70; ADP: -5% at 139; SPOT: -3% at 258.33; EBAY: -2.5% at 55; KODK: +81% at 14.50 on gov't loan, apparently it's a biotech now; BCO: +30% at 49.70 on earnings; LB: +24% at 23.55 on cost reductions; SMG: +12% at 163 on earnings; FEYE: +11.5% 75.45; SHOP: +7% at 1056; SBUX: +5% at 78.55; GM: +3.7% at 27.32; JNPR: +3% at 25;

2 days ago AMC: AGNC, FFIV, NOV, NXPI;
2 days ago BMO: CMI, CNC, DHI, GLW, HOG, MCD, MMM, MO, PFE, RTX, SPGI, YNDX;

2 Day Old News: CMI: +5% at 201; DHI: +3% at 68.60; PFE: +2.5% at 38.52; NOV: -5% at 12.40; YNDX: -4.2% at 55.45; HOG: -3.7% at 28.21; NXPI: -3% at 117; FFIV: -3% at 147; MMM: -3% at 158.42; GLW: at 30.63; MTCH announces CEO change;

TT Track of the Day: No yacht rock today! Mudvayne - Happy, I used to love Mudvayne. I was never a huge fan of this song, not that I dislike it, but it sends me straight back to my junior year in college. Wish I could do the same thing!

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Wed 29 Jul 2020 Morning Notes

Earnings are picking up quite a bit, looking at a busy morning. Amazing how some mornings there's literally jack shit going on, then others there's so much going it takes multiple people to sift through it all. Unfortunately I don't have those multiple people working for me, hah. Where's that intern?!

Earnings: Yesterday AMC: AFL, AKAM, AMD, AMGN, EBAY, FEYE, JNPR, MDLZ, OKE, SBUX, STX, V
Today BMO: ADP, ANTM, BA, BSX, CCJ, CME, DISH, EPD, ETN, GD, GE, GM, HES, NSC, RCL, SHOP, SPOT, 

Other News:

Follow Through Names to Watch: FFIV, HOG, MMM, MTCH

GAINERS:
KODK: +81% at 14.50 on gov't loan, apparently it's a biotech now;
BCO: +30% at 49.70 on earnings; 
LB: +24% at 23.55 on cost reductions;
SMG: +12% at 163 on earnings;
FEYE: +11.5% 75.45;
SHOP: +7% at 1056;
SBUX: +5% at 78.55;
GM: +3.7% at 27.32;
JNPR: +3% at 25;

LOSERS:
STX: -8.5% at 44.70;
ADP: -5% at 139;
SPOT: -3% at 258.33;
EBAY: -2.5% at 55;

FLAT:

Follow through watch:

Day before Y'day AMC: AGNC, FFIV, NOV, NXPI;
Yesterday BMO: CMI, CNC, DHI, GLW, HOG, MCD, MMM, MO, PFE, RTX, SPGI, YNDX;

Y'day Other News: CMI: +5% at 201; DHI: +3% at 68.60; PFE: +2.5% at 38.52; NOV: -5% at 12.40; YNDX: -4.2% at 55.45; HOG: -3.7% at 28.21; NXPI: -3% at 117; FFIV: -3% at 147; MMM: -3% at 158.42; GLW: at 30.63; MTCH announces CEO change;

2 days ago AMC:
2 days ago BMO: HAS

2 Day Old News: MRNA: +8% at 79 on receiving $472m in additional funding; AEP: -8% at 81.35 on influence scandal; UA: -2.5% at 9.60 on Wells Notice; HAS: -3.5% at 75; DKNG -5% at 37 on Covid outbreak in MLB;

TT Track of the Day: More yacht rock, 10cc - I'm not in love

Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Tues 28 July Morning Notes

Got my best night of sleep in over a week last night #TwinToddlers, but woke up late this morning so I'm running the hurry-up offense for trading.

Threw on a couple ratio spreads yesterday for small (very small) credits, CCL 18.5/24.5 3x7, DKNG 43/48 1x3, INTC multiple strikes starting at 57 spread against 65 and 65.5 calls. Odds of a payout is low, but I got paid to put them on so what the hell do I care. Losses for me kick in above all their 52wk highs, so the spreads are nice and wide.

Earnings: Yesterday AMC: AGNC, FFIV, NOV, NXPI;
Today BMO: CMI, CNC, DHI, GLW, HOG, MCD, MMM, MO, PFE, RTX, SPGI, YNDX;

Other News:

Follow Through Names to Watch: HAS, DKNG

GAINERS:
CMI: +5% at 201;
DHI: +3% at 68.60;
PFE: +2.5% at 38.52;

LOSERS:
NOV: -5% at 12.40;
YNDX: -4.2% at 55.45;
HOG: -3.7% at 28.21;
NXPI: -3% at 117;
FFIV: -3% at 147
MMM: -3% at 158.42;

FLAT:
GLW: at 30.63;

Follow through watch:

Day before Y'day AMC:
Yesterday BMO: HAS

Y'day Other News: MRNA: +8% at 79 on receiving $472m in additional funding; AEP: -8% at 81.35 on influence scandal; UA: -2.5% at 9.60 on Wells Notice; HAS: -3.5% at 75; DKNG -5% at 37 on Covid outbreak in MLB;

2 days ago AMC: ETFC, EW, INTC, MAT, SGMS, SKX, SWKS
2 days ago BMO: AXP, HON, SLB, VZ

2 Day Old News: EHTH: -21% at 90;

TT Track of the Day: Joe