Wednesday 29 March 2023 Morning Notes

I'm still focusing on being short COIN. The opportunity here is massive, and legging into positions is proving prescient as the SEC action takes time to play out. I've staggered my positions size wise so that they get larger as you go further out in time. The SEC has 180 days from Wells Notice issuance to take action, which makes the September expiry attractive. My new favorite trade is buying the COIN Sep 30 puts, then selling 1x each of the 20 puts and 10 puts for $1.30ish. Trade has a max gain of $8.70, and only sees losses w/COIN above 28.70 or below $1.30 by Sep opex. The only bullshit aspect of the trade is that brokers require margin be posted on the short 10 puts, despite max loss of the position being debit paid. Stupid nonsense!

Monday 27 March 2023 Morning Notes

Focusing on my COIN short... No need to trade anything else at the moment. This is consuming all of my energy/attention

My theme song while COIN plays out, Fugazi - Waiting Room, and I'll quote the opening lines:

I am a patient boy
I'll wait, I'll wait, I'll wait, I'll wait

 

Friday 24 March 2023 Morning Notes

No trades of note yesterday, aside from a small otm wkly 61/60 put spread in COIN that I had bot for 22 cents. I thought for sure it would close under 60 by Friday opex. Still plenty of time left. I also bought a few far otm puts for a penny, on the unlikely chance of a SIVB/FRC-like follow through floor drop.

I closed out essentially the last of my CS trades, I had a June 1.4/0.9 1x2 put spread that I had put on for a 0.04 credit, that I flipped for a 25 cent total credit. Far from a "nips to blips RV trade" as Harley Bassman might say, but a solid flip for an 8day hold.

Yesterday AMC:
Today BMO:

Other News:

Follow through names to watch: GME,

GAINERS:

LOSERS:


Follow through watch:

Day before Y'day AMC: CHWY
Yesterday BMO: ACN

Y'day Other News: SQ: -17% at 60 on Hindenburg report; COIN: -15% at 65 on SEC/Wells Notice;

2 days ago AMC: GME, NKE
2 days ago BMO:

2 days ago Other News: AG drops on report of mine closure;

Thursday 23 March 2023 Morning Notes

I put on two trades yesterday, a GME 15-10-5 1x1x1 "skip-strike" put ratio, buying the 15s, selling the 10s and selling the 5s for about $1.60. Max gain is $3.40 and max loss is limited to debit paid. I like this trade as I can't see GME standing much of a chance in the "high" interest rate environment

I also tweeted about a "generational (put) buying opportunity" in COIN, stating that I thought a June put condor made the most sense.. mostly due to trying to off-set the implied vols... fast forward a couple hours later, and COIN gets crushed 20% on a SEC Wells Notice. I wish I put this trade on in more size, and wish it weren't a spread.. but I suppose at least I have something. on.

Yesterday AMC: CHWY
Today BMO: ACN

Other News:

Follow through names to watch: GME,

GAINERS:

LOSERS:
SQ: -17% at 60 on Hindenburg report;
COIN: -15% at 65 on SEC/Wells Notice;

Follow through watch:

Day before Y'day AMC: GME, NKE
Yesterday BMO:

Y'day Other News:

2 days ago AMC:
2 days ago BMO: CSIQ, TME

2 days ago Other News: AG drops on report of mine closure;

Wednesday 22 March 2023 Morning Notes

Bot back my UBS short calls for a profit yesterday, though could have closed them for more the day prior. I wasn't expecting the stock to rally, especially following a downgrade by Moody's and soaring premiums to insure UBS bonds.

Yesterday AMC: GME, NKE
Today BMO:

Other News:

Follow through names to watch: AG, CS, FRC, USB

GAINERS:

LOSERS:


Follow through watch:

Day before Y'day AMC:
Yesterday BMO: CSIQ, TME

Y'day Other News: AG drops on report of mine closure;

2 days ago AMC:
2 days ago BMO: FL, PDD

2 days ago Other News: UBS agrees to buy CS for $3b, which is a 60% discount to where CS closed on Friday;