Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Tuesday Sept 16 outlook

/ES: Yesterday: O: 1977.5 H: 1979 L: 1969.5 C: 1976
Overnight: H: 1976.5 L: 1972
Currently: 1972.5

10YR: Yesterday: O: 2.589 H: 2.598 L: 2.582 C: 2.591
Currently: 2.553

/VX: Yesterday: O: 14.0 H: 14.47 L: 13.95 C: 14.35
Currently: 15.25

SODA (660m) is popping 4.4% on a rumor that it's going to be b/o by an English company. the stock closed at 31.50 and is currently trading around 32.85. It hit a high of 33.5 on light volume. Sep opex IV was at 47.5% yesterday, pre-mkt move is indicative of IV at 74%. 31% of the float is short, could see some exaggerated moves today

AAPL is selling off in the pre-mkt on reports of issues with China holding up their business plans. The stock closed yesterday at 101.60 after opening at 103. Its currently trading down 1.6%, indicative of IV of 25.4. IV has been juiced lately and is currently sitting at 28.2%

Yesterday's Recap:

I completely missed AVNR somehow. I saw the news and just wrote it off, never looked into it. A strangle on AVNR could have been opened for around .80 and sold for $1.40 by 11 and $3 by EOD.

CTSH IV was underpriced off the open, though the options were pretty illiquid. The stock opened at 45.85 and sold off to 44.19 by 2pm. That represents an IV of 57.24, and it opened around 22%. A Sep opex 46 put buyer nailed the selloff picking up 500 of the puts.

CAT opened lower off the TEX news, I tried to buy puts but the options didn't open quick enough. I looked at a strangle but was only willing to pay $1.20 when market was quoting $1.25. It was worth $1.45 by day's end.

DANG had a rumor which went very CREE like from a week earlier. Popped on low volume and no real volume in the options, only to sell off by EOD. The stock popped from 13 to 13.50 at 10am, then hit 12.80 at 11am before hitting a low of 12.45 at 1:30pm.

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