Friday, October 5, 2012

Pre-Mkt Outlook Friday 10.05

The /ES closed yesterday at about 1456 and looks to open around 1463ish.

$STZ came out with earnings but showed a 23% drop in profit due to taxes and overhead costs. However, it has slightly increased its guidance now seeing 2 to 2.10 a share vs. 1.93 to 2.03. $STZ is trading slightly higher from 34.8 to 35.5 in the pre-mkt.

$ZNGA is trading much lower in the pre-mkt, down from 2.80 to a new all-time low of 2.16 and currently trading around 2.30 after cutting its full year outloook.

$FB is trading lower, down from a close of 21.95 to 21.53 on volume of 700K in the pre-mkt, in sympathy to the $ZNGA news. Several of the $FB IPO lawsuits have been consolidated into one big lawsuit in NY as well.

Based on OI, I'm looking for $AAPL to stay between 660 and 670, with gravitation toward that 670 strike. I'm expecting $FB to stay above 21.5 based on the 13K put contracts sitting in OI at that strike, and below 22. $GOOG never seems to get held down by weekly OI, but I'm looking for it to stay above 760 and below 700. GOOG's highest OI strike is the 750 Put with 4k contracts, not a huge number when compared to $AAPL or $FB. Tons of factors that contribute to the $SPY, but I'm looking for that to get pegged to 146 based on the put OI at 145 (197k) and the call OI at 147 (185k).

Please see the below OI charts for $AAPL, $FB, $GOOG and $SPY:

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