Thursday 16 Oct 2025 Morning Notes

Ok, so I got my teeth kicked in pretty good this week and I had literally multiple opportunities to avoid said teeth kicking. I don't think I've ever had a week as rough as this one since I started trading, so let's break it down. First and foremost, I tapped out of my HOG short via Jan '26 $25 puts that I had put on back at near-peak vol in April. That one I had plenty of time to digest, and when I put the trade on I knew I could lose it all. Tough loss, but I knew that a large loss was a potential outcome. I also ate a decent loss in a QBTS Jan '26 $10/$5 1x2 put ratio spread. Stock has essentially no revenues and frequently dilutes shares, so I thought the ratio was a layup. Not a layup, ate practically max loss on that one. So it goes.

The one trade that is a real thorn in my ass were my short PZZA calls. I figured the SI report was total shit, not accurate, so I sold the vol. Had a chance to btc relatively quickly for +50% of my initial credit, pressed for more and lost, bigly. I'm now sitting on a -500% loss. That one is only a portion of my HOG short loss, but stings so much more it's not even funny.

With that said, I try as best as humanly possible to be trade agnostic, like a human robot. I look at my account and I'm still up on the year (not nearly as much as I would have been without the aforementioned losses), but still up. Though I've lost $ on low-delta, high-gamma plays this year, I'm happy that I've thrown them on... because eventually one of those dumb-ass trades will hit and will payout 50-100x, covering these losses and then some.

Yesterday AMC: SNV, UAL
Today BMO: KEY, SCHW, TSM, USB

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Day before Y'day AMC: ABT, ASML, BAC, MS, PGR, PNC
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