Wednesday, February 14, 2024

Wednesday 14 Feb 2024 Morning Notes

Happy Valentines Day! Found myself on the wrong side of Hindenburg vol, sold puts when IV was bid obscenely high then didn't close them out. I then read the report, and thought "maybe I should close these out" then the stock turned. Took a small L on the short puts, but the IV was too rich to not touch, and I could have closed for a profit but pressed for more and lost.

I did sell some Jan '25 $100 strike puts in ARM. They were selling for more yesterday than they were the morning following earnings last week, despite stock being 15% higher. I'm looking for stock to flat line and vol to drop, and I should be able to buy these back for a solid profit.

I also traded the earnings gap in CART, buying the 30/33/37 bwb for .25 and buying the 24/21/18 put spread for .60. The total package cost me .85. I aimed for the meaty portion of the implied move, and it appears as though IV is going to collapse. However, based on the whipsaw movements in extended hours, I wouldn't be surprised to see either fly be driven itm this week.

Yesterday AMC:
Today BMO:

Other News: QDEL gets pasted 38% w/2k of the Feb 65 puts opening up in the past week, the largest position in OI by far.. could be hedging, but maybe not.. LYFT post earnings trade was insane, with stock ripping from 12 to 20 then crashing back to 14 after the earnings call. Apparently there was a typo in the reported numbers with an extra zero, that got corrected during the conference call. Classic! Still one to watch; CC drops 10% after re-scheduling earnings date; VZIO popped at end of day on report of WMT interested in taking co private;

Follow through names to watch: CAR, SHOP, VZIO

Morning watchlist:

Follow through watch:

Day before Y'day AMC: ANET, CAR, GT, WM, ZI

Y'day Other News:

2 days ago AMC:
2 days ago BMO: IMVT, MNDY

2 days ago Other News: FANG makes $26b deal in Permian; CBAY to be acquired by GILD for $32.50/share in $4.3b deal; JBLU Icahn takes 9.1% stake in co;

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