Monday, April 27, 2015

April 27 Monday Morning Notes

Es: +0.2% (+4.5) at 2116.25
10yr: +0.57 (+.11) at 1.928
Vx: -0.5% (-.075) at 14.55
Cl: -0.47% (-.27) at 56.88

GSK: +1.8% at 47.42, 245k - Talk of PFE target
JD: +1.8% at 35.35, 8k - Huge call buying in name past couple months
AAPL: +1.5% at 132.34 - Earnings after the bell
DIS: +1.3% at 111.00 - Had ridiculous Icahn rumor Friday

CLDN: -76% at 3.28, 3.5m - Biotech doing biotech things
AMAT: -7.25% at 20.22, 43m - Deal fell through
MRVL: -3.4% at 13.70, 67k - Warning after the bell Friday, classic
DDD: -2% at 26.69, 30k - d/g after warning

Friday Recap:
CMG ruinied me for an AMZN strangle as my IV estimate was too low. I figured if CMG could open with 36% IV after dropping 6%, then AMZN would open at 40. That was wrong, it opened at 48 then spiked to 56. A 450/430 strangle paid out just like I thought it would.

MSFT made on one of the largest PEM to date, I tried getting into a straddle on that but it moved too quickly off the open and I didn't try to re-enter.

P vol opened with the straddle pricing a move of .78 by day's end. That turned out to be cheap as the stock made a max move of $1.68 from where it opened.

GOOGL I wasn't too interested in as it's not that great of a PEM, but it still made it's average move of 2% and IV was depressed on the open so a strangle would have worked in that. #hindsight

BABA ripped off the open, presumably from the AMZN report.

CELG ripped off a rumor of a BMY t/o. The 119/116 strangle was at 23% IV for .25 and I was bidding .22, didn't get in and the stock hit a high of 120.50. Also, IV quickly jumped from 23% to over 30% on this rumor. On the stock move, I would have been able to sell the 119 call for $1.25+

Too many woulda, shoulda, couldas today. That's how she goes sometimes.

I'm starting the week off with the Beatles advising one to "get back":

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