Friday, April 17, 2015

April 17 Friday Morning Notes

Believe it or not, my goal is to have this stupid post up by 915am EST, and it's like a scramble at 925am every time. So this one is going up with my favorite kind of sight: hindsight. 

ES: -0.58% (-12.00) at 2088.75
TNX: +1.06% (+.20) at 1.900
VX: +3.5% (+.50) at 15.63
CL: -0.6% (-.34) at 57.77

BMY: +4% at 66.26, 94k - Drug study met endpoint, trial stopped early
SLB: +2.5% at 94.02, 171k - Earnings
ICPT: +2% at 280, 8.5k -
GE: +0.9% at 27.52, 1.2m - Earnings
STX: Flat, was up 2%. At 55.95 now, 250k - earnings

AXP: -2.7% at 78.70, 66k - Earnings
GS: -1% at 198.10, 25k - Day after earnings

I caught STX moving in the pre-mkt 5mins before the bell and knew that STX and I would be seeing each other soon via a long vol play. I cracked open my trusty post-earnings move spreadsheet and saw that it makes an avg PEM of 4.5% with a high of 7.5% and a low of 2.3%. I wanted 3% OTM and threw a 55p/57c opex bid in at .30 at 36% vol. Much to my surprise, they filled the fiend. I flipped for 100% shortly thereafter but missed out on an additional 200%. I'm great at doing that.

Yesterday Recap:
Yesterday NFLX put on an absolute clinic to all kinds of short sellers: stock shorts and vol shorts. Can't even imagine how many dudes blew out their accounts on being short NFLX yesterday. Of course I was tied up all morning so I missed my favorite play, a slightly OTM opex strangle. Man did that get paid yesterday.

Here's my theme song for opex Fridays:

No comments:

Post a Comment