Sunday, November 18, 2012

Weekly recap 11.12 - 11.16

Here is the recap each day of the stocks I was watching throughout the week, please reference the day's blog post to see the news on why I was looking at the stock. I just don't want to re-type stuff!


$MCP opened at 7.25ish and sold off to 6.65ish by 1008 then rebounded to close around 7.20.

$JCP tanked big time. It was like fund managers absorbed the horror that is JCP over the weekend and couldn't wait to dump it come Monday. "Pick a put, any put" and you could have cleaned house. It opened at 20.33 and did a 45 degree slide down to 17.99 by the close.


$MSFT had that news that the head of Windows was resigning. I forget the exact quote, but CNBC said that the stock being down 3% was flattering for the guy who was leaving, implying that it was hardly a loss and they were probably better off without him. I tend to trade with the tape, never against it. However, when a mega-cap is down this much, I always feel institutions will rush in to buy which is what ended up happening. The stock opened at 26.95, sold off to 26.83 within 15 minutes or so then rebounded to 27.28 by noontime. There was a huge pickup of weekly 26.50 puts off the bat which made me second guess a bull bounce play.

$HD - I will say full out, I would have attempted to fade this that day. Would have been hugely wrong, the stock rallied big time post earnings. It opened at 62.57 and rallied to 64.20 by 1030, and closed at 63.30. The talk throughout the day was to sell calls and fade it through the rest of the month, which is exactly what ended up happening throughout the week, as it hit a low of 61.09 by Thursday.

$DKS - Opened at 50.36, sold off to 49.65 then rallied to 51.50.


$CSCO opened at about 18.15 and closed at the day low of 17.55. Again, I almost always expect the mega caps to fade when they are up over 3%. The down market lately certainly helps the fade.

$ANF - Opened around 40.37 and hit a low of 39.08 before closing at 41.98. I would have expected more of an end of day sell off since it was up over 30% on the day.

$MOS - Opens at 48.86 and hit a day high of 49.50 at 2pm, aka big fund time. Again, another large cap stock down a few percentage points that rebound. Although, they did drop their outlook which never helps.

$FB - Went all $YELP lockup on the day. Apparently the lockup was priced into the stock as the shares rallied on the day, defying most peoples expectations. It opened at 20.00 then rallied to close at 22.36. OTM calls crushed it, but took some nuts to go in on one. That was a huge number of shares being unlocked.


$WMT - Opened at 68.88, sold off to 68.00 around 1000ish, then rebound to 68.75 by close. I was expecting it to rally back toward 70, but it wasn't being helped by the severely weak market tape.

$DMND - Opened at around 15.20 and rallied to 16.45 by 1030. Vol was still through the roof on the options on this one, and I really had no guess as to whether or not it would rebound or sell off further off the open. It again sold off to 15.15 by 1500ish and closed around 15.35.

$NTAP - Opened at 30.72, sold off to 29.76 by 1000, then pretty much consolidated around the 30.00 level before closing at 30.20.


$GPS - Opens at 34.50 then sells off to 33.30 by 1130.

$FL - Opened at 33.80, hit a high of 34.06 then a low of 32.47 by 1130 before rebounding to close at 33.27.

$SHLD - Opens lower at 54.72. I was looking at the weekly 52.50 puts, expecting it to head lower. Could have picked them up for .20 near the open, to up over 5.00 as the stock sold off big time. The stock hit a low of 46.14 and closed at 47.49.

$AAPL - Wow, AAPL was all over the place on Friday. It opened at 525.20, sold off to 505.75 and then rallied at 1130, the Euro Mkt close and on comments that the fiscal cliff talks were moving along positively. The stock rebounded to close at 527.68.

$GOOG - Essentially followed the $AAPL track, opening at 645.99, selling off to 636.00 before rebounding to a high of 653.02 to close at 647.18.

I'm of the opinion that there needs to be literally NO macroeconomic news or significant stock-specific news for stocks to get pinned. It's anecdotal and I'm not keeping track, but it seems like $AAPL and $GOOG will blow right through max pain if there are any catalysts to steer them around.


I think $JCP puts, $GPS puts and $SHLD puts were the 3 highest probability trades of the week from the news I was watching.


There wasn't much breaking news to trade. The only real actionable news was to short the $SPY or go long $CLFUT when reports broke that Israel was shelling Gaza.

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